Doubled in one day

Only just noticed this – that Microsoft (MSN / Live Spaces) is migrating all users to WordPress. Wow.

Personally I think it is healthy that Google still offers the hosted Blogger option for simpler blogs where users don’t want to be bothered with configuration of many optional plug-in functions and separate ISP provision of other content management. (Even though of course, WordPress itself offers pretty well any content management as a hosted service too.) Can’t see any natural reason for a monopoly in this space. Interesting move.

BP Report Is Out

Deepwater Horizon Accident – Full report and exec summary available here.

Masterful understatement

“It may also be appropriate for BP to consider further work to examine potential systemic issues beyond the immediate cause and system cause scope of this investigation.”

Interestingly contrary to hearsay and published accounts …. although one of the two annular preventers was compromised by earlier error it seems the leak flow path was through the failed cementation in the main well-bore “shoe-track” rather than the annulus [*] ? Basically after all the errors – and there were many – it was a failure to notice they had a loss of containment problem until it was too late.

Even outgoing (outgone) chairman Tony Hayward gets to comment …

“To put it simply, there was a bad cement job and a failure of the shoe track barrier at the bottom of the well, which let hydrocarbons from the reservoir into the production casing. The negative pressure test was accepted when it should not have been, there were failures in well control procedures and in the blow-out preventer; and the rig’s fire and gas system did not prevent ignition. Based on the report, it would appear unlikely that the well design contributed to the incident, as the investigation found that the hydrocarbons flowed up the production casing through the bottom of the well.”

[Post Note – different annulus. The cementation in the annulus at the reservoir depth was part of the failure. The annular BOP (in the annulus between drill pipe and casing) did fail to seal when needed, even the undamaged one of the two. From my perspective, which is not directly concerned with the operational drilling and cementation procedures and quality controls, the systemic concern must be about key safety critical information not being available in real time to a permissive command level of supervisory management systems ? Which is strange because in my direct experience of BP (onshore, downstream) activities in 70’s/80’s/90’s, it was they that first introduced formal criticality ratings to the industry.]

[Post Post Note : In terms of shifting “blame” from BP to others – I just don’t see it. In the reports, the joint representation of the different companies involved is clear at each stage, BP included. And the “bad cement job and bad testing” conclusion does have a prior design element that is maybe not obvious to a lay reader. I have no doubt the string design was not unusual for the Gulf deep-water situation, but it is pretty clear that the cement job included cement design parameters – densities, mixes, liquid and gas proportions – that meant the margins for placing successfully were quite tight – ie it should not have been a great surprise to find an unsuccessful cement job first time around, but that’s why the process quality controls include testing before removing the mud load. The facts in the report don’t extend to the (time is money and we’re behind schedule) motivations to get the mud out and get the rig off the site – just the actual timings and actions. That’s going to require a different kind of investigation with fuller cooperation from the contractors involved.

Two corollaries : First, the commercial pressure to get off the job would presumably concern only the rig costs and opportunity costs …. there is no production downtime issue here for BP, since the job was to seal the well up indefinitely for future exploitation. And second, part of the systemic problem is presumably the cultural distinction between the wildcat – risk-taking – part of drilling operations being “deliberately” separate from the owner-operator production exploitation. Unlikely that BP are the “cause” of such a culture in the US/Gulf, but clearly they have responsibilities about which they could take / could have taken action. Choosing what to know and when to intervene. Tricky one. ]

The Answer is Facebook

If facebook is the answer, what was the question ? The open-graph framework / foundation of the social-layer on which the game-layer will be built.

The “game layer”;
a pervasive net of behavior-steering game dynamics that will reshape education and commerce.

Intriguing TED Talk from Seth Priebatsch. It’s all game theory in practice … so behaviour steering dynamics is an interesting concept.

Freedom of Information

I’ve blogged a few comments recently about non-freedom of information in the communication (verb) sense of information … in the public domain in connection with government, economy, science, business, etc. Not all information should be publicly communicated just because it can be. A moral issue affecting the quality of decision-making that affects us all.

Here is a piece in The Atlantic on the freedom of information … in the free-of-cost sense. Also a moral issue. A reaction to naive internet ideology that “Information wants to be free” and “attempts to constrain it are immoral”, because information also really needs to be expensive … ie valued, if it is to have any real quality. Will comment further. Thanks to Johan for the link on Facebook.

It is mostly about Apple vs Google vs Murdoch media pricing and licensing, but the moral ideology is central

“the core gospel of an open Web was upheld with such rigor that when one of its more prolific members, Time magazine’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt, published a scare-the-old-folks cover story in 1995, which carried the implication that some measure of online censorship might not be a bad thing, he and his apostasy were torn to pieces with breathtaking relentlessness. At the time, the episode was notable for being one of the first examples of the Web’s ability to fact-check, and keep in check, the mainstream media—it turned out that the study on whichTime’s exclusive report was based was inaccurate, and its results were wildly overstated. In retrospect, what seems notable is the fervor with which digital correctness—the idea that the unencumbered flow of everything must be defended—was being enforced.”

[Post Note – spooky that this article should turn up today too – The Internet Kill Switch.]

The Wrong Stuff

From the Slate, a piece by Kathryn Shulz interviewing ex-astronaut James Bagian on relative risks and relative attention to risks in bleeding edge exploration and business-as-usual.

[Post Note :  I have since read the complete article and it is really very good, on the human psychology side of “error” and risk, and between error and harm, proximate individual causes and fixable systemic causes, etc. One side connection – Bagian mentions the little appreciated fact that the Challenger crew hearts were still beating when their cockpit escape module hit the ocean – reminded me of a comment I made recently on the F111 Wikipedia page, where the crew escape module was mis-captioned – since corrected on the main page.]

[And whilst we’re here : That Kathryn Shulz post is just one of a series of blogged interviews on the subject of “wrongology”.]

Trust Matters

One of my management adages is

“Agreement in public,
disagreement in private”.

I was reminded of it by this quote collection from Kevin Kelly. (Here’s the permalink to the Scott Delinger quote.)

It’s one of these things that get’s tangled up in open communications, freedom of speech mantras that so many people seem to think applies to all communications. As if not voicing disagreement is somehow dishonest. No such thing as need to know, all management of communication is somehow evil. Also the element that agreeing in public is a kind of “me too” noise, less valuable that disagreement. It also get’s tangled up in “scientism” … as if somehow covering up disagreement, not pointing out errors, is counter to scientific progress, and must be stamped out for some greater good.

No. In my experience most disagreement is initially misunderstanding, and voicing disagreement initially tends to spread misunderstanding, and in a context where trust matters, spreading misunderstanding then spreads uncertainty and mistrust. Much more effective to voice misunderstanding and apparent disagreement with the other party privately, to establish if there really is error or significant disagreement, or simply lack of clarity that will benefit from clarification. Then go public with that. Much more productive of everyone’s time.

Of course if trust doesn’t matter to you, do your worst.

(More good quotes in that Kevin Kelley collection BTW – Tim O’Reilly and E. Digby Baltzell for example.)